The first control simulation included weather patterns from 2000-2013.
The second simulation overlaid that same weather data with a "pseudo global warming" technique using an accepted scenario that assumes a 2- to 3-degree increase in average temperature, and a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide."When we compared the current convective population to the future, we found that weak to moderate storms decrease in frequency, whereas the most intense storms increase in frequency," Rasmussen said.
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Using the dataset and collaborating with NCAR researchers, Rasmussen led analysis of detailed climate simulations."How would today's weather patterns look in a warmer, wetter atmosphere - an expected shift portended by climate change?Colorado State University researcher Kristen Rasmussen offers new insight into this question - specifically, how thunderstorms would be different in a warmer world.For the study, Rasmussen employed a powerful new dataset developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, Colorado, where Rasmussen completed postdoctoral work before joining the CSU faculty in 2016.The scientists generated the enormous dataset by running NCAR's Weather Research and Forecasting model at an extremely high resolution of about 4 kilometers (about 2.5 miles), across the entire contiguous U. Typical climate models only resolve to about 100 kilometers (about 62 miles) - not nearly the detail available in the new dataset.